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Polling Open Thread (Summary Edition)
by DemFromCT
Mon Nov 1st, 2004 at 07:27:28 GMT

LV Two-way Tracking polls are here (Zogby and WMUR NH state trackers are lower on the page at the same link):

                Bush  Kerry

Zogby     48    47    Monday

TIPP      47    42    Sunday

Rasmussen 48.1  47.1  Sunday

WaPo      48    48    Sunday

Fox       46    47    Sunday

The national polls can be found here.

    Final National Polls(Previous Value)

                      Bush    Kerry

Pew          48(47)   45(47)

NBC/WSJ      48(48)   47(48)

CBS/NY Times 49(47)   46(45)

Gallup       49(51)   47(46)

ARG          48       49

D-Corps      47(47)   48(49)

Now is when the incumbent/undecided rule is supposed to kick in. Add the state-by-state battles, and polling alone does not call a winner. Pay more attention to Bush's numbers, but some polls do have a Kerry lead. The data does suggest:

• either side could win
  
• any suggestion of a "Bush lead" is false
  
• Bush at 47.9 (average of 10 polls) is not good for an incumbent
  
• high turnout spoils "low/normal turnout" models
  
• Kerry is doing similar to Gore in 2000
  
• turnout is key

  [editor's note, by DemFromCT]
  

• In 2000, 111 million of 203 million voted (that's 55% of the voting population).
  
• 111 of 130 RV voted (85%). PDF table census website

There are many state polling summary sites; choose your own or go here. Nothing new here, but do not let media and spinmeisters mislead you. These are typically bad numbers for an incumbent and Bush is not "ahead". Below the fold is a more comprehensive list, including allocated Gallup and Pew votes.

Park your polling thoughts here and let's spare the polling diaries (unless youve got some meat to go with the potatoes). Soon enough, polling won't matter. The only one that does is tomorrow.

Open Threads ::

On the graph, Gallup and Pew are a projection by allocation of undecideds, not polled numbers.