Blogswarm - Online Political News Magazine

by Chris Bowers

Using only polls where the majority of people questioned were questioned within the past week, here are the current swing state averages (all LV models, no partisan polls):

Florida
       Kerry  Bush
Zogby	48     47
RR	47     49
Gallup	49     46
M-D	45     49
Florida 48.3   46.7
Q-poll	43     51
Mean	46.7   48.1
(Outlier Q-poll prevents a tie at 47.54)

Iowa
       Kerry  Bush
Zogby	50     45
Gallup	46     48
SUSA	49     49
DMR	48     45
M-D	44     49
R2000	48     49
ARG	47     48
Mean	47.4   47.6
(W/undecideds and early voting, Kerry looks good)

Michigan
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	52     45
RR	49     47
SUSA	50     47
M-D	47     45
Mitch	43.2   41.3
R2000	50     46
Mean	48.5   45.2
(I think Kerry has it here)

Minnesota
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	49     47
RR	47     48
Gallup	52     44
M-D	47     48
Star	49     41
Mean	48.8   45.6
(Again, I think Kerry has it)

Missouri
      Kerry  Bush
M-D	44     49
Mean	44     49
(Bush under 50 in M-D! MO isn't finished)

Nevada
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	44     50
M-D	44     50
Mean	44     50
(Likely Bush, unfortunately)

New Hampshire
      Kerry  Bush
UNH	49     48
ARG	47     47
R2000	49     46
M-D	47     46
FPC	50     43
Mean	48.6   46.0
(Looks like Kerry has it)

New Meixco
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	49     49
ARG	48     47
AlbJ	44     47
M-D	45     49
RR	44     48
Mean	46.0   48.0
(Considering the undecideds, a toss-up)

Ohio
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	44     48
RR	48     50
Gallup	50     46
M-D	46     48
CD	50     50
Mean	47.8   48.4
(Super-tight toss up w/undecideds)

Pennsylvania
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	50     45
RR	49     47
Gallup	46     50
M-D	48     46
WHYY	50     45
Q-poll	47     47
Mean	48.3   46.7
(Gallup can ram it. Kerry looks good)

Wisconsin
      Kerry  Bush
Zogby	51     44
Gallup	44     52
M-D	48     46
ARG	48     47
Badger	45     48
Mean	47.2   47.4
(I think Kerry looks good)

I expect every other state to go according to CW, although huge turnout might make a few others very close. Kerry looks good to hold every single Gore state, with the possible exception of New Mexico. With 80% of undecideds (a little les than normal), Kerry wins 311-227. With undecideds split equally, Bush wins 296-242. Also, if I were to use RV polls instead of LV polls where possible, things would look much better for Kerry almost everywhere (leading in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, much closer in Florida), which once again shows how important turnout will be. The election is on a knife's edge of tight polls, GOTV and the Incumbent Rule. Kerry has the slight advantage.