National Popular Vote
John Kerry: 50.13%
George Bush: 48.37%
Others: 1.50%
Interestingly, it is the TIPP poll that gives Kerry the final push over 50%. With 9% undecided, and most of the undecideds allocated to Kerry, Kerry's lead rises from 0.40% without TIPP to 1.76% with TIPP. In front of many thousands of people, I am obviously staking my reputation as an election forecaster on the Incumbent Rule. I stand by my research on the subject, and I expect it to bring Kerry into the White House with a very 1976-esque margin of victory.
Electoral College
John Kerry: 291
George Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH switching to Kerry
States Projected By Less Than Three Points
Ohio: Bush 50.4, Kerry 49.1
Wisconsin: Kerry 49.7, Bush 48.4
Florida: Kerry 50.0, Bush 48.5
New Mexico: Kerry 50.3, Bush 48.5
Iowa: Kerry 50.7, Bush 48.5
New Hampshire: Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.8
According to my methodology, every other state is projected by more than three points, and thus leans toward one candidate or the other. Every single other state goes as you would expect. I have Kerry winning all 291 of his electoral votes by more than 1%. In other words, I project Kerry as the winner tomorrow night, no overtime. I have Kerry falling short in Ohio but not by much. Please, prove me wrong in Ohio!
That is the best guess I can make. Even though I allocated 86% of the undecideds to Kerry, I think I erred on the conservative side when it came to which polls I included. I always used LV models when it came to state polls, and I included, without any adjustments, polls such as Mason-Dixon, Gallup and Quinnipiac that I felt over-sampled Republicans.
If I am nervous tomorrow and have nothing else to do, I will adjust this project to take into account the final national polls. However, I doubt it will have much, if any difference. I think Kerry is going to win. I think there is going to be record turnout. I think the undecideds will break overwhelmingly for the challenger. I think our GOTV efforts will make an important difference in Kerry's favor. We will all find our tomorrow how close I came.
