Blogswarm - Online Political News Magazine

No polling thread today... irrelevent at this point. The polls opened in CT at 6 am and there were lines around the Middle School auditorium that I haven't seen in 15 years. This website and Year 2000 PDF from the census bureau will put things in perspective. Figs 1 and 3 of the PDF note that there were 203 million adult age voters in 2000 of which 111 million voted (55%). There were 210 million in 2002. I don't know the current number but it must approach 220 million.

If 55% turn out, we'll approach 121 and I don't see why we can't hit 130 as Charlie Cook suggested. The NY Times notes Record Turnout Forecast; Vote Drives Intensify.

But, wait. Not every adult votes. Now, in 2002 registered voters only numbered 128 million, but it's not unusual for most (85% in 2000, a Presidential year) to vote. There have been, let's guess, 10 million newly registered voters (the GOP claims 3 million for themselves and the population has grown) and if we get the registered voters up to 90%, we get 124 million. That's probably the safest prediction.

Poster Hartley points to these alternate figures which will be quoted all day on cable. I don't know which are correct. So, by the numbers, it's very likely that 10 million more people will vote this year than 2000. These numbers should, in addition Dem lawyers and the scrutiny of the local media, help assure a proper (if not perfect) election. And the bigger the numbers, the quicker we can move on to governance and legitimacy... something that been sadly lacking for four years.

Finally, it's interesting that only in the last few days, the fact that Bush is not seen as legitimate by a good chunk of the population is getting discussed by the pundits. They need some narrative to explain those lines in FL, and they'll need more to explain it when the hugely popular and beloved wartime President goes down in flames. And those kids with cellphones?

One subject of much discussion in this election is that a growing number of people have no traditional "landline" phones but have cell phones and cannot be reached by traditional telephone surveys.

    Data from our online survey suggest that six percent (6%) of all likely voters now fall into this category and that they are voting strongly for John Kerry by 56 to 38 percent over President Bush.

  These results suggest that telephone surveys which miss almost everyone without landlines will, even if they are accurate, slightly overestimate

President Bush's vote and slightly underestimate Senator Kerry's vote. This also explains a small part of the difference between our online and telephone surveys.

It's always nice when the media catches up with us. But be prepared for the lines. As someone noted yesterday, a roll of garbage bags makes for a good emergency pancho cache for the rain.

I had to add this from E J Dionne:

George W. Bush once had a chance to be looking forward to a landslide victory today and a nation committed to standing together in defeating terrorism.

Instead, the president is perilously close to defeat. The best he can hope for is a narrow victory that will leave the nation bitter, divided and angry. One of Bush's achievements will be exceptional voter turnout and a renewal of the idea that elections and political parties matter. The downside, for him at least, is that a large share of the country has been activated for the primary purpose of ending his presidency.