Blogswarm - Online Political News Magazine

Compare the final polling numbers with the exit polling numbers and you'll see that the pollsters failed to capture what was going on:

Final Polling:

The last poll

by Jerome Armstrong

Frm NJ's Hotline, a rundown of the final national poll conducted by major media and polling organizations.:

                                                   Bush Kerry Nader
ABC News/Wash. Post (10/28-31; 2,904 LVs; +/- 2%)   49%  48%	1%
American Research Grp (10/28-30;1,258 LVs; +/-2.8%) 48   48	1     
CBS/New York Times (10/29-11/1; 939 LVs; +/-3%)     49   47	1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (10/29-31; 1,573 LVs; +/-3%)   49   49	1
Democracy Corps (D) (10/29-31; 1,018 LVs; +/-3.1%)  47   48	1
Fox News (10/30-31; 1,200 LVs; +/-3%)               46   48     1
GWU/Battleground (11/1; 500 LVs; +/-3.1%)           50   46     1
Harris (10/29-11/1; 1,092 LVs; +/-3%)               49   48     2
ICR (10/27-31; 473 LVs; +/- 4.5%)*                  48   47     1
Marist (11/1; 987 LVs; +/-3.5%)                     49   50     *
NBC/WSJ (10/29-31; 1,014 LVs; +/-3.1%)              48   47     1
Newsweek (10/27-29; 882 LVs; +/-4%)                 50   44     1
Pew (10/27-30; 1,925 LVs; +/-2.5%)                  48   45     1
TIPP (10/30-11/1; 1,284 LVs; +/-2.8%)               50   48     1
Zogby Int'l/Reuters (10/29-31; 1208 LVs; +/-3%)     48   47     1
Economist/YouGov (10/29-11/1; 1870 LV)              47   50     1
Rasmussen Reports (11/1)                            50   48     -

*Conducted in the batteleground states of 
AZ, AR, FL, IA, LA, MI, MN,MO, NV, NH, 
NM, OH, OR, PA, WA and WI.

Early VNS exit polling

by Jerome Armstrong

Here is some of the early VNS data, fwiw:

	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

Now, mind that these are early numbers. And even if correct, they reflect the ones most wanting to vote, and it's still a long way to go... but wow, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire & Minnesota voters can't wait to boot Bush!

Not only is Kerry not losing, but he's winning. At this point in the day the Kerry campaign would be happy to be five or six points down, but instead they're winning? Huge in Pennsylvania!
Get out the vote!