by Chris Bowers
Things are not good for us right now at pretty much any level of government except state legislatures. In the Senate, governorships and the Presidency, things can even get much worse. Fortunately, in the House, that does not appear to be the case. From today's Hotline, subscription only, here are the House races where the incumbent won with less than 55% of the vote:
Total Precincts
Race Candidate Votes %age Reporting
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CA 26 DREIER (R) 116,218 54% 100%
Matthews (D) 92,665 43
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CO 04 MUSGRAVE (R) 144,325 52% 82%
Matsunaka (D) 124,491 44
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CO 07 BEAUPREZ (R) 114,969 55% 100%
Thomas (D) 88,713 43
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CT 02 SIMMONS (R) 165,558 54% 100%
Sullivan (D) 139,987 46
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CT 04 SHAYS (R) 149,891 52% 100%
Farrell (D) 136,481 48
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IN 02 CHOCOLA (R) 140,426 52% 100%
Donnelly (D) 115,470 45
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IN 07 CARSON (D) 121,086 54% 100%
Horning (R) 97,319 44
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IN 08 HOSTETTLER (R) 145,761 53% 100%
Jennings (D) 121,678 45
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KS 03 MOORE (D) 177,525 55% 100%
Kobach (R) 141,302 44
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MN 06 KENNEDY (R) 205,586 54% 100%
Wetterling (D) 174,828 46
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NM 01 WILSON (R) 141,240 55% 100%
Romero (D) 116,821 45
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NV 03 PORTER (R) 161,176 54% 100%
Gallagher (D) 119,564 40
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NC 11 TAYLOR (R) 157,012 55% 100%
Keever (D) 129,462 45
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OR 05 HOOLEY (D) 172,802 53% 100%
Zupancic (R) 144,439 44
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PA 06 GERLACH (R) 156,763 51% 100%
Murphy (D) 150,741 49
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SD AL HERSETH (D) 207,910 53% 100%
Diedrich (R) 178,801 46
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TN 04 DAVIS (D) 138,398 55% 99%
Bowling (R) 109,912 44
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TX 17 EDWARDS (D) 125,220 51% 100%
Wohlgemuth (R) 116,131 47
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Out of eighteen of the closest twelve races that featured incumbents, Republicans won twelve. Although I am not really close to finishing my analysis of the slightly less close races, those also seem to have more Republican victors than Democrats. For example, here are the congressional leaders who did not do much better:
Race Candidate Votes %age Reporting
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IL 06 HYDE (R) 131,229 55.5% 100%
Cegelis (D) 105,205 44.5
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MO 03 Carnahan (D) 146,751 52.9% 100%
Federer (R) 125,012 45.1
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TX 22 DELAY (R) 149,901 55.1% 100%
Morrison (D) 111,741 41.1
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Carnahan is featured because he was taking Gephardt's old seat. It is very sweet to see Hyde and DeLay so vulnerable.
We were beaten, but in the House at least it would appear that we have nowhere to go but up. The same could not be said after 2002, both because both Texas redistricting and because in that cycle, more Democrats won close races than Republicans.
