Posted by simon at November 10, 2004 06:04 PM | TrackBack
One of the big stories of the 2004 election seems to be how well George Bush did with Hispanic voters. According to the exit polls, his share with Hispanics went from 35% Bush, 62% Gore in 2000 to 44% - 53% this time. And though there are some different poll numbers floating out there that minimize Bush's performance among Hispanics, we have to acknowledge that Bush did make gains with this important group. While NDN is in the process of putting together a more thorough analysis, here are some early takes on what we know – including some good news for Democrats:
1. Hispanics are a diverse, swing vote. As many of you know, NDN began its Hispanic Project in the spring of 2002 to build support among Hispanics for Democratic values and the Democratic issue agenda. We had grown concerned about Republican inroads in what had been a reliably Democratic group. After this strong showing by Bush we can no longer treat Hispanics as anything but a swing vote that leans Democratic.
Hispanics are also diverse. No two states have a similar make up. Some are more Spanish-dominant, some more English-dominant. Some have more Mexicans, some more Puerto Ricans, some have Spanish families who arrived in the 16th century, some have South and Central Americans who arrived in the 90s and of course there are the Cubans.
Let's look at the numbers. In the five most heavily contested states Democrats received 44% in Florida, 56% in Arizona and New Mexico, 60% in Nevada and 70% in Colorado. Different voters, different campaigns, different results. There is no single national strategy to speak to Hispanics, no silver bullet.
2. Despite Bush’s gains, Democrats did much better in the states with aggressive Hispanic campaigns, and actually picked up ground in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado we picked up three points from 2000, moving from 67% to 70%, and in Florida we went from 34% to 44% of the Hispanic vote. In New Mexico and Nevada we lost some ground from 2000 but ran above the national average with Kerry at 56% of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico and 60% in Nevada. What this shows is the Hispanic vote can be influenced by good campaigns, and in these four states where the Democrats fought the hardest we saw significant gains and above-average performance.
3. Democrats’ greatest gains were in Florida. Hispanics went for Bush 65% - 34% in 2000, but just 56% - 44% this time. With 1 million Hispanics voting according to the exit polls, this represents a net gain of 190,000 votes for Democrats.
Bush experienced a similar decline in the Cuban-American vote, going from 82% - 17% Bush in 2000 to just 72% - 28% this time. Today’s Miami Herald has a good piece on the changing Cuban vote.
Much of the statewide gain came from the huge increase in the non-Cuban Hispanic community which went from 40% of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2000 to 55% percent this time, and stayed reliably Democratic.
This dramatic turnaround in Florida is very good news for Democrats.
4. The Kerry/DNC effort was not sufficient. While NDN spent $6 million speaking to Hispanics this cycle, our effort talked about issues not candidates, as our mission was to educate Hispanics about the Democratic agenda and did so through eight months of sustained television advertising. Our campaign was designed to improve understanding among Hispanics of the ideas and values of Democrats. It was the job of the Kerry campaign to bring voters to Kerry himself.
It is our conclusion that the Kerry/DNC coordinated campaign never took this vote seriously enough. We now know that there was talk at the highest levels of the campaign that Bush would not make gains from his 2000 number – 35% and that little money or attention was needed to speak to Hispanics in the final months. From what we saw, despite having a determined and talented Hispanic team in place, the campaign did not spend the money or make the commitment needed to win this vote, potentially allowing states like Nevada and New Mexico to slip away.
So, what does this mean? Hispanics are a swing vote. They are no longer a base vote of our Party. Though we can all agree that it is the Democratic agenda that will help Latinos live a better life, we need to tell them in a compelling, culturally sensitive way. When we speak to them we can move them our way. When we don’t, as we saw nationally, they can break Republican. Given the size, growth rate and distribution of Hispanics it is safe to say that if we do not reverse the gains made by Bush and his team in future elections Democrats will not be able to become the majority Party in our lifetimes, and perhaps beyond.
