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Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Chris Bowers on Electability - MUST READ

What Electability Has Wrought
by Chris Bowers

Electability is the most pernicious of all lies to penetrate the Democratic psyche. Electability, as frequenter commenter JollyBuddah termed it, is "a fairy tale told by bloviating pundits." It is the sort of mendacity used by swindlers and tyrants: a few simple gimmicks can solve all your problems. Find the right person, from the right state, in the right region, with the right resume, and presto, that is all you need. Simple falsehoods of this sort can appeal to desperate people who, like Democrats, seek immediate relief to crushing problems. We want to believe that all it takes are a few simple tricks, especially when times are at their worst. We want to believe this because we need hope.

What has electability wrought? What do we have now that John Kerry has been defeated?

Do we have a network of volunteers who, now that the election is over, are available to work on projects other than the 2004 election? Not really, as our massive volunteer efforts were geared toward a single purpose that has now passed, and many were not even from the areas where they were volunteering.

Do we have down-ticket Congressional and gubernatorial success to celebrate apart from the Presidential race? No, as the current congressional makeup is very similar to 1994 and 1996.

Do we have stronger local organizations anywhere outside of Montana and Democratic areas of swing states? Not really, as we have no new grassroots structures from the campaign.

Do we have any new issues raised during the campaign that we can seize on as part of a developing national message that can be used to raise the level of debate and bring more people to our side in the future? Not really, unless you count Edwards and Obama. For the majority of the campaign, Kerry's message was his bio. We do not have a single ideological narrative with any national resonance.

No, no, no and no. Kerry's campaign, and subsequent defeat, left us with few improved outlooks on the future. We do have improved netroots, massively improved small donor fundraising, much better voter registration in important Democratic areas and our most favorable partisan index map in decades. There were some long-term victories, but not many. Further, what we did gain, long-term, was entirely as a side-effect of our all-out effort to win at any cost. We improved in swing states because we saw swing states as the key to defeating Bush in 2004. We improved in small donor fundraising because the campaign needed the money. We registered more voters in swing states purely in an attempt to win in 2004. If there was a long-term project we ignored, it was ignored because it was not seen as central toward victory in 2004.

In other words, because we are a party in the death-grip of electability, we consistently fail to work on engaging in the long-term structural organization needed in order to improve our fortunes, long-term. More after the jump.


Last week I got into a pretty heated argument with my roommate (commenter Spartacus) over my Evolving Partisan Strength series. Near the end of the argument, he said something along these lines:
I can't believe that in an article that long your entire point was that Southerners cannot improve on Democratic chances in the South in Presidential elections just by virtue of their very southern-ness. That is a pretty small point to make for an essay of that length.
I was trying to make a few other points in the essay, but he was correct in identifying my central argument. My response was that that was not a small point at all, and the notion that the South can still swing to Democrats if and only if we nominate a Southerner is was one of the central misconceptions fueling the electability argument. Like many other "electability" misconceptions, it is so hard-wired into our national psyche and repeatedly reified by bloviating pundits. When the lie runs deep, it takes a lot of work to demonstrate that it is, in fact, a lie.

There are several other electability myths that I would like to work to debunk, because from what I can tell over two years of blogosphere bickering surrounding the term, every aspect of the electability argument is untenable. Here are a few more:

  • A line on a resume will compensate for a person's ideological and/or popularity weakness on a given policy issue (veterans will help us on the military, doctors will help us on health care, ministers will help us on religion, teachers will help us on education, etc). I don't buy this. Quite frankly, it assumes that people are idiots and blank slates dazzled by resumes and bright shiny things more than ideas.

  • A moderate will increase our appeal among moderates, or a liberal will increase our appeal among liberals.

  • Winning "this election" as all that matters. This is the big one, and it need to be discussed in full.
Winning "this election" is never all that matters. What we do, or do not do, in any given election alters our chances in future elections. If we do not build local grassroots structures in all fifty states during a Presidential election because everything is sacrificed at the alter of swing states, then we will have serious problems in congressional, state legislature, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections outside of swing states in future elections. If we do not work on a national message, and seek instead only to appeal on the given potluck of issues in a single cycle, we will still be lacking a national message in future elections. If we believe that a line on a resume, even if that line is a place of birth, can swing people more than message, we will be lacking in message altogether, which spells permanent electoral doom. If we think that simply being "moderate" will swing people, without ever explaining to people what "moderate" is, then we will be actively working to push more people into the conservative camp, and participating in our own destruction.

What do we have now that the election is over? Why should we be optimistic about our future? What has electability wrought? Trippi has one answer:

Mr. Kerry was a weaker candidate than Mr. Gore. He lost so much ground among women, Hispanics, and other key groups, that the millions in Internet money, the most Herculean get-out-the-vote effort in party history, and the largest turnout of young voters in over a decade, couldn't save him. Had the young stayed home, the sea of red on the map would have grown to include at least Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire--perhaps one or two more.(...)

Since the Democratic Leadership Council, with its mantra of "moderate, moderate, moderate," took hold in D.C., the party has been in decline at just about every level of government. Forget the Kerry loss. Today the number of Democrats in the House is the lowest it's been since 1948. Democrats are on the brink of becoming a permanent minority party.

What do we have in return? Pretty much, just money:
A Republican sweep of the White House and control of Congress hasn't stopped the Democratic National Committee's fund raising.

The DNC announced Tuesday that it had raised at least $13 million in November. The total includes $10 million collected after the Nov. 2 election in which President Bush won a second term and Republicans strengthened their House and Senate majorities.

Due in part to growth in fund raising over the Internet, the DNC raised more this election cycle than it did before corporate, union and big individual donations known as soft money were outlawed by a 2002 law.

The committee raised at least $400 million in the 2003-04 election cycle, compared to $210 million in 1999-2000, the last presidential election cycle in which it could collect unlimited donations.

The party's fortunes are crashing, and we are still controlled by the electability mindset, and the sychophantic mendacity of the chattering classes currently manifested in an Anyone But Dean movement for DNC chair. It might as well be phrased as an Anything But a Fifty-State Strategy movement, an Anything But A National Message or Ideological Narrative movement, or an Anything But Change and Grassroots Movement. The electability mindset has almost single-handedly ripped our party to shreds, but unfortunately for us, many Democrats out there seem unwilling to try something new, something difficult, and something long-term.

Any reality based community would properly reject "electability" as the lie that it is. To bad more of us are not doing the same. Howard Dean for DNC chair.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/11/30/143728/70

Posted at 07:34 pm by blog swarm

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August 31, 2005   10:49 AM PDT
 
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