Expectations:
Unsurprisingly, Joe Lieberman is trying to play the expectations game,
making ridiculous, grandiose predictions that Ned Lamont will take 30% or or move of the delegates. To its credit, the
Hartford Courant
is aware of the shtick Joe is trying to pull, but I wouldn't be
surprised if other tradmed outfits fall for this pathetically
transparent gambit.
While it would be terrific if Lamont got 15%, and extraordinary if
he did hit 30%, we need to be realistic here. Lieberman has been an
institution in CT politics for decades. There is a tremendous amount of
pressure to support him. Anyone interested in a future in Connecticut
politics has to realize that if they back Lamont and Lamont loses,
they'll be pariahs for as long as Lieberman is alive. Backing Joe is
the safe move. Remember, we're talking about Democrats here - these are
not the people who are usually inclined to ever take risks.
Could losing the convention vote be good news?
But there's also some very good news: Getting 15% doesn't matter.
Not only does it not matter, it might even be salutary if Lamont doesn't
hit that mark. No, I didn't just get fitted for rose-colored contact
lenses. Here's why: Lamont has been working hard to get on the ballot
via an alternate route: gathering signatures from 15,000 of the state's
Democrats. It's an expensive and difficult process, but well worth it.
When you have to petition to get on the ballot, that does two things
for you. First, you're forced to ramp up your field operation early.
That means you've got a bigger volunteer base, more experienced
campaign workers, and a field team that runs like a proverbial
well-oiled machine months ahead of schedule. Second, you get the names
of tons and tons of supporters. The law requires 15K sigs, but because
of the inevitable challenges and invalid names, you generally want
about twice that. And psychological research shows that the mere act of
getting people to sign a statement of support (which is what a petition
is) makes it much more likely that they'll continue in that support at
a later time.
Successfully petitioning to get on the ballot would also be a nice
feather in Lamont's cap because it would be the first time any
major-party statewide candidate has done that in CT. Connecticut used
to not have a petition process at all - you had to get 15% at a
convention or you were out of luck. That system was recently ruled
unconstitutional, so Lamont could make a little bit of history here.
Go read the whole thing.
Posted at 10:52 pm by blogswarm
