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Saturday, November 13, 2004
GOP a Cult

 
Are the Republicans a Cult? (The 8 Criteria Say So!)
by ultraworld

This is a paper done on 'Totalism' in today's cults by Jan Groenvald.

It offers an excellent short overview of the elements common to most, if not all cults. The criteria were originally outlined by Robert J. Lifton, who is the world's leading expert on cults and cultic thinking.

(Note: Most terrorist organizations could be defined as cults. See Lifton's "Destroying the World to Save It" - about one such group)

Read this and tell me if the tactics sound familiar.

They do to me...

- - - - - - - -

Totalism in Today's Cults

by Jan Groenvald

Contents

    * Introduction
    * Cognitive Dissonance
          o Behaviour Control
          o Thought Control
          o Emotional Control
          o Information Control
    * The Eight Marks of Mind Control
          o Totalism -- All or Nothing
          o Brainwashing
          o Thought Control
                + 1. Milieu Control
                + 2. Mystical Manipulation
                + 3. Demand for Purity
                + 4. Cult of Confession
                + 5. Sacred Science
                + 6. Loading the Language
                + 7. Doctrine over Person
                + 8. Dispensing of Existence
    * In Summary...

Introduction

Studies have shown that today's cults use a stronger form of control than those of 50 years ago. The advent of new psychological experiments in the 60's and 70's have produced the modern methods of mind control which are far more sophisticated than the BEHAVIOUR MODIFICATION TECHNIQUES and THOUGHT REFORM developed by the Chinese. To understand mind control you need a basic understanding of BEHAVIOUR MODIFICATION TECHNIQUES.

What is "behaviour modification"?


 

Simply described, it is "reward or punishment for actions" association. It was used on you as a child whenever you were being commended or otherwise for your behaviour.

Taking away a privilege is usually a sure-fire method to persuading a child to change its behaviour when that child is old enough to understand the process. Praising a child for doing good is another method of changing behaviour, especially in the child who is anxious to please. The rod of education applied to the seat of learning is another method of bringing about a desired behaviour change.

When behaviour modification techniques such as these are applied in a loving, caring and consistent way, the child changes their behaviour without holding feelings of resentment. However, if these techniques are perverted in any way, damage is done to the child's psyche, their emotions, e.g. the abused child syndrome. Cults use a sophisticated and perverted form of behaviour modification which damages an individuals emotions.

Cognitive Dissonance

Leon Festinger is a psychologist who studied groups that predicted the end of the world. He found that most members became stronger than ever when the prophecy failed. His investigation revealed that members had to find a way to cope psychologically with the failure. They needed to maintain order and meaning in their life. They needed to think they were acting according to their self-image and values. Festinger described this contradiction which they had to overcome as what has become known as the "COGNITIVE DISSONANCE THEORY." The three components he described are:

    * "CONTROL OF BEHAVIOUR"
    * "CONTROL OF THOUGHTS"
    * "CONTROL OF EMOTIONS"

Each component has a powerful effect on the other two: CHANGE ONE AND THE OTHERS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW. When all three change the individual undergoes a complete change. Festinger summarised the basic principle:

    "If you change a person's behaviour, his thoughts and feelings will change to minimise the dissonance."

When there is a conflict between thoughts, feelings or behaviour, then those in conflict will change to minimise the contradiction. This is because a person can only tolerate a certain amount of discrepancy between these components which make up his identity. In cults this dissonance is created to exploit and control them.

Steven Hassan, author of Combating Cult Mind Control, added a fourth component to Festinger's:

    * "CONTROL OF INFORMATION"

By controlling the information one receives you can control and restrict the individual's ability to think for himself. You limit what he is able to think about.

BEHAVIOUR CONTROL -- The control of an individual's physical reality.

This can include control of where he lives, what he eats, his clothing, sleep, job, rituals etc. This is why most cults have a stringent schedule for members. There is always something to do in destructive cults. Each cult has its own distinctive set of behaviours that bind it together. This control is so powerful that the cult member will actually participate in their own punishment and come to believe he actually deserves it! No one can command a person's thoughts but IF YOU CAN CONTROL BEHAVIOUR THEN HEARTS AND MINDS WILL FOLLOW.

Thought Control -- The control of an individual's thought processes.

The indoctrination of members so thoroughly that they will manipulate their own thought processes. The ideology is internalised as "the truth". Incoming information is filtered through the beliefs which also regulates how this information is thought about.

The cult has it's own language which further regulates how a person thinks. This puts a great barrier between cult members and outsiders.

Another form of control is "thought stopping" techniques. This can take many forms: chanting, meditating, singing, humming, tongues (some even pay money to learn it), concentrated praying, etc. The use of these techniques short-circuits the persons' ability to test reality. The person can only think positive thoughts about the group. If there is a problem the member assumes responsibility and works harder.

Emotional Control -- The control of the individual's emotional life.

This manipulates a person's range of feelings. Guilt and fear are used to keep control. Cult members cannot see the control by guilt and like other abuse victims are conditioned to blame themselves when things are wrong, even grateful when a leader points our their transgressions.

Fear is used to manipulate two ways. The first is to create an outside enemy (we vs them) who is persecuting you. The second is the fear of punishment by the leaders if you are not "good enough." Being "good enough" is following the ideology perfectly. The most powerful emotional control is phobia indoctrination. This can give the person a panic reaction at the very thought of leaving the group. It is almost impossible to conceive that there is any life outside the group. There is no physical gun held to their heads but the psychological gun is just as if not more powerful.

Information Control -- The control of the individual's information sources.

Deny a person the information needed to make a sound judgment and he will be incapable of doing so. People are trapped in cults because they are denied both the access to the critical information they need to assess their situation. The psychological chains on their minds are just as powerful as if they were locked away physically from society. So strong is this psychological process they also lack the properly functioning internal mechanism to process any critical information placed in front of them.

The Eight Marks of Mind Control
Totalism -- All or Nothing

Mind Control is a PROCESS of eradicating former beliefs and instituting new beliefs in their place through the use of COERCIVE persuasion. It is a PROCESS which is designed to break a person's independence and individuality and replace it with the ideology clone. The Chinese called this process "thought reform" which was poorly translated into English as "brain-washing".

Brainwashing

Brainwashing is now considered to be a different process to thought reform or mind control. In brainwashing the victim knows who is the enemy. An example is American Patty Hearst who was kidnapped by a terrorist group. Through physical abuse she finally became a member of the group and took part in terrorist activities and bank robberies.

Thought Control

Thought control is more subtle. The victim doesn't know who is the enemy because the enemy seems like their best friend who only has their best interests at heart.

Cults practice a more refined form of thought control than that used by the Chinese. Leading psychologist, Dr Margaret Singer, said cults do it better than the Chinese because it is easier to get people to do what you want through manipulating them with guilt and anxiety. During this process the prospective recruit is re-educated and will abandon the precepts he has learnt from life for the "truth" or "enlightenment" offered by the group. In some cults this is done over a long period of time; Other cults can bring about this change within 48 hours. Whichever way the process takes place the results are the same. The individual has undergone a total change in personality and is often unrecognisable by their family.

The process of thought control has been documented by Robert J. Lifton who researched what happened to the American prisoners of the Communist Chinese. He labelled the steps which have become the standard by which to judge whether a group is using "brain-washing" or "thought reform" on its recruits.

Robert J. Lifton's research showed that:

    "These criteria consist of eight psychological themes which are predominant within the social field of the thought reform milieu. Each has a totalistic quality; each depends upon an equally absolute philosophical assumption; and each mobilises certain individual emotional tendencies, mostly of a polarising nature. Psychological theme, philosophical rationale, and polarised individual tendencies are interdependent; they require, rather than directly cause, each other. In combination they create an atmosphere which may temporarily energise or exhilarate, but which at the same time poses the gravest of human threats." (Thought Reform & the Psychology of Totalism, p. 420)

The eight marks noted by Lifton are:

1. MILIEU CONTROL -- Control of the Environment and Communication.

The control of human communication is the most basic feature of the thought reform environment. This is the control of what the individual sees, hears, reads, writes, experiences and expresses. It goes even further than that, and controls the individuals communication with himself -- his own thoughts.

Everything other than their beliefs is excluded. The organisation appears to be omniscient. They seem to know everything that is going on. Reality is their exclusive possession. In this environment the individual is deprived of the combination of external information and internal reflection required to test reality and to maintain a measure of identity separate from his environment. The individual can feel victimised by his controllers and feel the hostility of suffocation -- the resentful awareness that his striving toward new information, independent judgment and self-expression are being thwarted.

EXAMPLE - Jehovah's Witnesses are a classical example of a closed community living within and mixing with the wider community. Because they are so well known we have used them as an example.

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * You could "go beyond the 'truth' -- beyond what they taught. This showed you were thinking for yourself and put yourself above leadership. Those moving ahead of the Organisation are counselled

    * No gatherings other than those allowed or organised by organisation (1982).

    * Not making comments from your own thoughts at the meetings. Only comments from the study articles are permitted. No independent thinking is permitted.

    * The organization always seemed to know what was going on in your congregation and article appeared in Watchtower publications just at the right time ("food at the proper time"). This was done through Circuit Servants reports to Headquarters.

    * Use of 'publisher record cards' etc. to monitor activities of members. Watchtower is aware of trends etc. by strict reporting and control of individual Witnesses activities.

    * Report on fellow brothers & sisters (cannot get away from organisation)

    * Monitoring or observation of disfellowshipped or marked people.

    * Non Witnesses are viewed as 'bad association'

    * Worldly education discouraged -- better to go door-to-door

    * Employment that takes up time which should be devoted to Watchtower activities is also discouraged.

    * Should be 'buying out the opportune time' in 'theocratic activities'.

    * Taught to indoctrinate self!

    * 'Shepherding' of those who fall behind.

2. MYSTICAL MANIPULATION -- The Mystique of the Organisation.

This seeks to provoke specific patterns of behaviour and emotion in such a way that these will appear to have arisen spontaneously from within the environment. For the manipulated person this assumes a near-mystical quality. This is not just a power trip by the manipulators. They have a sense of "higher purpose" and see themselves as being the "keepers of the truth." By becoming the instruments of their own mystique, they create a mystical aura around the manipulating institution -- the Party, the Government, the Organisation, etc. They are the chosen agents to carry out this mystical imperative.

The pursuit of this mystical imperative supersedes all considerations of decency or immediate human welfare. The end justifies the means. You can lie, deceive or whatever to those outside the organization. Association with the "outside" is only to benefit their own cause in some way. Some cults like Moonies and Hare Krishna's call their deception "heavenly deception" or "transcendental trickery". Members believe in the ideology to such a degree that they rationalize these deceptions. Members are kept in a frenzy of cult related activities. There is little time or energy to think about their lifestyle.

"The psychology of the pawn" -- This person feels unable to escape from forces he sees more powerful than himself. His way of dealing with this is to adapt to them. He learns how to anticipate problems with the organisation and to manipulate events to avoid incriminating himself. This is the person who has been in the organisation long enough, knows something is wrong, is on the verge of leaving then suddenly becomes very loyal. They sell out to the organisation and will turn in friends who may have confided in them.

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * "Theocratic strategy" - If you don't have a right to know the truth it is OK to lie to you. (See "Insight" under 'Lie')

    * Avoid telling prospects- No blood, holidays, family, friends, etc.

    * Bring someone new each time they call so prospect gets to know the people at the Kingdom Hall when they attend. (Planned spontaneity)

    * The ideology supersedes the welfare of the individual. They are not involved in charities outside the group [or in the group].

    * Not helping fellow members to the detriment of promoting the ideology. This is more important than helping the sick & elderly.

    * Prayers are general -- for the organisation not the needs of the individual. See God as not interested in you as a person.

    * Blessed only for effort in promoting the Kingdom.

    * Ability of organisation to accomplish the 'preaching work' seen as evidence of Jehovah's blessing, direction and angelic help

    * Jehovah 'sifts out' those not truly 'in the truth', those without 'the right heart condition' which is why people leave or must be disfellowshipped. No one leaves legitimately.

3. DEMAND FOR PURITY -- Everything is black & white.

Pure and impure is defined by the ideology of the organization. Only those ideas, feelings and actions consistent with the ideology and policy are good. The individual conscience is not reliable. The philosophical assumption is that absolute purity is attainable and that anything done in the name of this purity is moral. By defining and manipulating the criteria of purity and conducting an all-out war on impurity (dissension especially) the organisation creates a narrow world of guilt and shame. This is perpetuated by an ethos of continuous reform, the demand that one strive permanently and painfully for something which not only does not exist but is alien to the human condition.

Under these conditions the individual expects humiliation, ostracism and punishment because of his inability to live up to the criteria and lives in a constant state of guilt and shame. Since the organisation is the ultimate judge of good and evil, this guilt and shame is used to manipulate and control members. The organization becomes an authority without limit in the eyes of members and their power is nowhere more evident that in their capacity to "forgive".

All impurities are seen to originate from "outside" (the world). Therefore, one of the best ways to relieve himself of the burden of guilt is to denounce these with great hostility. The more guilty he feels, the greater his hatred, the more hostile is his denouncement. Organizationally this eventually leads to purges of heretics, mass hatred and religious holy wars. The group will point to the mistakes of all other belief systems while promoting their own purity. This gives the impression that their organisation is perfect, clean and pure as a people or group.

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * Dress and grooming have been laid down at various times.

          o No pantsuits for ladies
          o No beards or moustaches
          o Short hair on men
          o No coloured shirts for men
          o No gold rimmed glasses
          o Certain styles of clothing

          These rules change at the whim of the leaders.

    * Only 2 organisations: Jehovah's and Satan's. You cannot be part of both.

    * World has no conscience - all dishonest

    * Must keep clear of worldly celebrations (Christmas, Easter, Birthdays, Mother's & Father's Day, Thanksgiving, etc.)

    * Loyalty displayed through meeting attendance and participation, field service, choice of marriage partners [strong 'in the truth'], shunning disfellowshipped relatives and friends.

4. CULT OF CONFESSION -- Reporting to leadership.

This is closely related to the demand for purity. Confession is carried beyond the ordinary religious, legal and therapeutic expressions to the point of becoming a cult in itself. In totalist hands, confession becomes a means of exploiting, rather than offering solace for these vulnerabilities.

Totalist confession is an act of self-surrender, the expression of the merging of the individual and environment. There is a dissolution of self, talents and money. Conformity.

The cult of confession has effects quite the reverse of its ideal of total exposure; rather than eliminating personal secrets, it increases and intensifies them.

The individual becomes caught up in continuous conflict over which secrets to preserve and which to surrender, over ways to reveal lesser secrets can be revealed and ways to protect more important ones.

The cult of confession makes it virtually impossible to attain reasonable balance between worth and humility.

e.g. In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * Confessing infringements to an Elder.

    * Putting in field reports (test of spirituality) [A monthly report of one's activities for that month. How many hours door-knocking; number of books and magazines sold; number of people one studied doctrine with, etc.]

    * Accept orders without question. Ask "How high" when told to jump.

    * Any who are aware of another's sin must put this one in to the elders or the guilt will rest on their shoulders.

    * Congregation is made aware of the sin through talks and restrictions placed on guilty ones.

5. SACRED SCIENCE -- Absolute "Truth".

Their "truth" is the absolute truth. It is sacred -- beyond questioning. There is a reverence demanded for the leadership. They have ALL the answers. Only to them is given the revelation of "truth".

The ultimate moral vision becomes the ultimate science and the person who dares to criticise it, or even think criticism, is immoral, irreverent and "unscientific".

The assumption here is not so much that man can be God, but rather that man's IDEAS can be God.

This gives sense of security to the member. They are confident they can get the answer to the most difficult problem or question.

e.g. In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * you can be disfellowshipped (kicked out) for daring to question what is taught in their publications.

    * Watchtower demands full devotion of members. Must not question the Organization (= questioning God)

    * There is an answer to everything, if you cannot find it in the publications you must 'wait on Jehovah' and not 'push ahead'.

    * Organisation itself will survive Armageddon but individual Jehovah's Witnesses have no such assurance.

6. LOADING THE LANGUAGE -- Thought terminating cliches.

Everything is compressed into brief, highly reductive, definitive-sounding phrases, easily memorized and easily expressed.

There are "good" terms which represents the groups ideology and "evil" terms to represent everything outside which is to be rejected. Totalist language is intensely divisive, all-encompassing jargon, unmercifully judging. To those outside the group this language is tedious -- the language of non-thought.

This effectively isolates members from outside world. The only people who understand you are other members. Other members can tell if you are really one of them by how you talk.

This narrowness of the language is constricting. The individual is linguistically deprived because language is central to the human experience and his capacities for thinking and feeling are immensely restricted.

While initially this loaded language can give a sense of security to the new believer, an uneasiness develops over time. This uneasiness may result in a withdrawal into the system and he preaches even harder to hide his problem and demonstrate his loyalty. It may also produce an inner division and the individual will publicly give the right performance while privately have his own thoughts.

Either way, his imagination becomes increasingly disassociated from his actual life experiences and may even tend to atrophy from disuse.

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:
# Theocratic strategy
# "ark of salvation"
# "new light"
# "meat in due season"
# "faithful & discreet slave"
# "apostate"
# "The anointed"
# Book study
# Christendom
# "Christ Jesus" instead of "Jesus Christ"
# 'back calls' now called 'return visits' (terminology changes indicate who might be falling behind or who is not really a member)
# "Jehovah will take care of it in his due time."
# "It's the truth" -- doesn't matter if they make a mistake
# Where else is there to go?
# Worldly
# Governing Body
# New System of Things

7. DOCTRINE OVER PERSON -- Doctrine supersedes human experience.

The ideological myth merges with their "truth" and the resulting deduction can be so overpowering and coercive that is simply replaces reality. Consequently past events can be altered, rewritten or even ignored to make them consistent with the current reality. This alteration is especially lethal when the distortions are imposed on the individual's memory.

They demand character and identity of a person be reshaped to fit their clone of mentality. The individual must fit the rigid contours of the doctrinal mould instead of developing their own potential and personality.

The underlying assumption is that the doctrine -- including its mythological elements -- is ultimately more valid, true and real than is any aspect of actual human character or human experience. The individual under such pressure is propelled into an intense conflict with his own sense of integrity, a struggle which take place in relation to polarised feelings if sincerity and insincerity.

Absolute sincerity is demanded by the group yet this must be put to one side when changes take place the individual has to deny the original belief ever existed. Personal feelings are suppressed and members must appear to be contented and enthusiastic at all times.

Some cults believe that all illness is a result of lack of faith and evidence of sin in your life. These things have to be prayed away and medical attention is ignored as a "sign of faith."

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * "There is no life outside the organisation" so when they see people who have made a life outside they revert back to doctrine over what they see.

    * If an experience doesn't fit, it must be demons.

    * Will ignore needs of others because doctrine overrides human experience. i.e. will ignore needs of disfellowshipped or marked persons no matter how serious those needs are.

    * Those who were JW's before 1975 and are still JW's will deny they ever believed Armageddon was due that year -- even those who sold homes, delayed medical treatment etc.

    * Watchtower has final authority even over personal experience. Blood transfusions, etc. Conscience matters are discussed only in the light of Watchtower doctrine (not left to individuals' consciences).

8. DISPENSING OF EXISTENCE -- Who is worthy to live.

They have the right to decide who is worthy of life and who isn't. They also decide which history books are accurate and which are not.

Those in the organisation are worthy of life; those outside worthy of death. The outsiders can be permitted to live if they change and become an insider. Members live in fear of being pronounced "dead". They have a fear of annihilation or extinction. The emotional conflict is one of "being vs nothingness".

Existence comes to depend upon creed (I believe, therefore I am), upon mission (I obey, therefore I am) and beyond these, upon a sense of total merger with the organisation. Should he stray from the "truth" his right to exist may be withdrawn and he is pronounced "dead".

e.g. - In Jehovah's Witnesses:

    * "Sheep and goats" -- how one responds to "Christ's brothers" decides their future. ("Christ's brothers" are those who rule the organisation. How you respond to their message as carried by their messengers decides your eternal future).

    * Elders decide who is worthy of life at Judicial Committee meetings.

    * They decide who is worthy of a resurrection -- (Sodom & Gommorah).

    * Disfellowshiping 'sinners' denies them any hope for a future outside the Organisation.

    * They will blatantly lie to achieve goals and consider this to be "theocratic strategy".

    * Any information contrary to the Watchtower 'system' is not considered worth listening to or reading.

    * Witnesses are forbidden to discuss such information, especially if is considered 'apostate' [put together by former members]

In Summary...

The more clearly these eight points are obvious, the greater the resemblance to ideological totalism. The more an organisation utilises such totalist devices to change individuals, the greater its resemblance to thought reform.

Remember ..... A group does not have to be religious to be cultic in behaviour. High demand groups can be commercial, political and psychological. Be aware, especially if you are a bright, intelligent and idealistic person. The most likely person to be caught up in this type of behavioural system is the one who says "I won't get caught. It will never happen to me. I am too intelligent for that sort of thing."

Written by Jan Groenveld
Internet Address: py101663@student.uq.edu.au
(c) Cult Awareness & Information Centre, PO Box 2444, Mansfield 4122, Australia,

May be distributed freely providing it contains the above identifying information and the text is not altered in any way.

Posted at 01:17 pm by blog swarm
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Forget Reality

 

by mcjoan
Fri Nov 12th, 2004 at 19:06:31 PST

(Cross-posted on liberal street fight)

Hello class. Welcome back to "Pregnancy and STD Prevention I." Today's lesson is barrier methods. Let's get started by opening your textbook to page . . . oh wait, that's not in the textbook. See, the Texas State Board of Educators (SBOE) decided last week (subscription) that your textbook couldn't talk about contraception. And since Texas is the second-largest market for high school textbooks, well that pretty much sets the standard for all textbook publishers. You're not going to find anything about contraceptive methods in this textbook. So kids, here's what to do. Abstain. Get plenty of rest, and go out in groups rather than pairs. Oh, and respect yourself. Ok, class dismissed. Girls off to home ec, boys to shop.

The Texas SBOE decision is just one more small victory by the anti-choice coalition to limit access and education about contraception to some of our society's most vulnerable members. An area in which they are seeing increasing success is passing "refusal clauses" at the state level (pdf) that allow health care facilities, health care providers, and pharmacists to refuse to provide information or access to reproductive health services. Abortion refusal clauses exist now in 43 states. Twelve states allow some health care providers to refuse to provide contraceptive services, including three states that explicitly allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense contraception. Those three states are Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Dakota. I'll come back to the significance of those three states in a minute.

Groups like Pharmacists for Life International (wingnuts) and the American Association of Pro-Life Obstetricians and Gynecologists (more professional wingnuts) are focusing their opposition to contraception primarily on the Pill. The basis of this stand is in the belief that in some cases the Pill acts not to suppress ovulation and prevent fertilization, but to prevent a fertilized egg from implanting and growing, something they call the "post-fertilization effect." This means that the Pill is causing an abortion. (Having fun yet?) Medically, the American College of Gynecologists have a very practical basis for determining when pregnancy begins--when it actually shows positive in a pregnancy test, which can't happen until implantation.

Never ones to let science get in the way of belief, these anti-choice proponents got their crazy ideas from a paper written by a Salt Lake City family doctor named Joseph B. Stanford, an assistant professor of family and preventive medicine at the University of Utah. In this paper, Stanford described the so-called "post-fertilization effect" and discusses his reasons for refusing to prescribe birth control pills. Oh yeah, and this is the same Dr. Stanford that was appointed to the Food and Drug Administration's Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee last year. Stanford, along with other Bush appointees W. David Hager and Susan Crockett, were instrumental in the decision to kill the approval of Plan B, an emergency contraceptive, as an over the counter drug.

While the anti-choice provider community is still relatively small, it's growing. According to an excellent article in Prevention,

Hundreds of physicians and pharmacists have pledged not to provide hormonal birth control. Among them: 450 doctors affiliated with the Dayton, OH-based natural family planning group One More Soul; some members of the 2,500 doctors in the Holland, MI-based American Association of Pro-Life Obstetricians and Gynecologists; and a growing number of the 1,500-member Web-based Pharmacists for Life International.

And that brings us back to Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Dakota. Let's see, what do all of these states have in common? Hmmm . . . could it be disadvantaged, largely rural populations? Could it be women who have very limited access to health care providers, and who will be unlikely to find a doctor or pharmacist willing to provide their prescription should their regular provider suddenly decide they don't like the Pill? According to the Alan Guttmacher Institute this is a population already underserved, and most likely to resort to the most extreme contraceptive solution: sterilizations. Women who have less than a high school education, have a household income below 150% of the federal poverty level, or are black or Hispanic are far more likely to resort to sterilization--about 27 percent of the female population in child-bearing years using some form of contraception. (I was encouraged to see that a full 10% of women were lucky enough to have male partners willing to go under the knife themselves to take care of this issue. Gee, thanks for stepping up to the plate, guys.)

So why now, you might wonder, is this fringe movement of the anti-choice coalition pushing for less contraceptive availability? I'm sure that some do actually buy into the post-fertilization effect, and truly believe that the Pill might actually cause abortion. But what I think is more likely on a large scale is that these people want to see more abortions. Abortion rates actually declined, and declined significantly--17.4 percent--during the Clinton presidency. At the end of his second term, abortions were at a 24-year low. And they are rising again in this administration. Because the anti-choice coalition needs to turn the problem into a crisis in order to push their agenda more quickly. What better way to do it than to dramatically increase the need for abortion in a handful of red states? How do you do that? Make birth control harder and harder to get.

This is one we can win, folks. Sixty-four percent of the more than 60 million women in child-bearing years in this country use birth control, and almost 27 percent of them use the Pill. In a recent national survey (pdf) the vast majority of women aged 18-44 felt that prescription contraceptives should be available without a doctor's prescription and with a screening by a pharmacist. Greater access to contraceptive services is something women are calling for, and would be horrified to learn is becoming the new target of the anti-choice movement.

Let's conclude by going back to Texas, and those high school kids that can't read about how to prevent pregnancy and STD infection. Turns out that Texas has the highest birth rate in the nation for teens aged 15-17. It also turns out, according to a poll conducted in August, that 90 percent of Texans "favor teaching students age-appropriate, medically accurate information on abstinence, birth control and prevention of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV." And still in Texas, regarding the case of Julee Lacey in Forth Worth, who's local pharmacist wouldn't fill her prescription:

When a woman is denied the Pill and the incident becomes public, it triggers a loud response. Case in point: After Lacey's story appeared in the Dallas Morning News, there was an enormous outpouring of letters from readers appalled by the pharmacist's actions. "This was a huge issue in our area, and we're a conservative community," says Emily Snooks, director of media relations and communications at Planned Parenthood of North Texas. "People here are still talking about it, simply because the vast majority of people in this country believe access to birth control is a basic right."

Let's keep it that way.

Posted at 01:12 pm by blog swarm
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NC Fraud - Smoking Gun

 

by markusd
Sat Nov 13th, 2004 at 06:07:43 PST

This was originally posted as a comment by a new user who can't yet post diaries -- I've actually seen this referred to in several comments, but nobody seems to have posted it as a main topic, and it seems to me to be EXTREMELY compelling.  This was originally posted at DU - link below - and there is a large thread of comments there over there on this one.  Looking through them,  I didn't see anything that debunks this, and I think it's worth a real careful look.

What say you, fraud detectives?  Is this not well worth pursuing?

ORIGINAL COMMENT:    

Unofficial Audit of NC Election: Comprehensive Case for Fraud

 Sorry for the numbers. This is a long and comprehensive report, so please stay with me -- it offers what I believe to be a strong case that election tampering took place, and I want to carefully establish the facts. I think it may be the first deep examination inside the numbers of a given state -- not just speculation -- but real data collection and questionable results put to the test.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x45003

BeFree asked me a few days ago to look over the North Carolina election returns. Things looked funny. They were way out of sync with the exit polls and no one could believe that Erskine Bowles had lost in the Senate race. The deeper I looked at the figures, the more things began to look disturbing. I downloaded the precinct data and began to pour through it for clues. Then I saw that the absentee vote (which apparently also includes the early voting data) was huge, comprising more than a million votes and nearly a full third of the total vote (30%). It offered the chance to compare an unadulterated voting pattern against the strange results of election day. I reasoned with an early vote that large, it is no longer a sample but a benchmark. The nearer one approaches 100%, the more accurate the picture of the whole. At one third, any inconsistencies should even out -- even if more white suburban Republicans voted by absentee (as has been charged in the past with smaller samples) or if the Democratic GOTV pushed our early numbers (as has been assumed for this election). In that respect, I was lucky to have looked at North Carolina -- it's not as crazed as the battleground states and the electorate is nicely split between parties. Any inconsistencies of one side dominating the early vote would have showed up in the data -- they didn't.

With that in mind, I began an informal review of the NC absentee vote. What I found was stunning, and I believe it should have national implications. I have little doubt that we will find the same thing elsewhere by using benchmark absentee data against election day returns. It not only reflects the pattern of exit poll discrepancy we saw throughout the country, but it also makes a compelling case for purposeful tampering with the electronic data. I also think it reveals the three objectives of the Bush re-election campaign: 1) re-election 2) mandate 3) strong Senate majority.

All of the absentee information was buried in the precinct data, hundreds of thousands of lines worth, and had to be pulled out before a comparison could be made. Before we look inside the numbers, note that of the 102 North Carolina counties, 2 have not yet posted absentee data, Catawba and Lee. It may well be in the precinct data but mislabeled or combined in some way. The NC Board of Elections said that both counties have reported, but weren't sure where it was recorded -- I'm awaiting a call back with the information. My estimate based on Catawba's demographic similarity to Davidson would shift the absentee percentages by 0.6% in the Republican's favor, so bear in mind that I've not incorporated it into the data and the consistency is going to be even better than represented. Catawba has a strong Republican base (47,923 to 33,024 registered Republicans to Democrats) and is heavily White (91,141 white to 7619 black registrants). As it is now, the absentee/early vote is almost precisely balanced statistically with the final results. Lee county is much smaller and has 16,391 Democrats to 9149 Republicans (again mostly white) -- it likely would have little impact on the percentages.

Now, here is the absentee data for all the statewide offices, followed by the overall vote, and then the poll-only results (obtained by subtracting the absentee data from the overall figures). The poll-only data is important as it gives us an isolated snapshot of the results that were returned on election day.

GOVERNOR (Absentee)
Mike Easley (DEM): 573,120 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 445,505 (43.2%) -12.4
Other: 12,490 (1.2%)

GOVERNOR (Overall)
Mike Easley (DEM): 1,939,137 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 1,495,032 (42.9%) -12.7
Other: 52,512 (1.5%)

GOVERNOR (Poll only)
Mike Easley (DEM): 1,366,017 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 1,049,527 (42.7%) -12.9
Other: 40,022 (1.6%)

Already we notice that the Democrat, Easley, ran consistently at 55.6% at the polls, in the absentee, and in the poll-only vote. The Republican, Ballantine, actually did very slightly better in the absentee. But this is the overall pattern of consistency in all the statewide races (except for Senate and President which I'll hold till last). There is one other important hidden benchmark we can measure here, percentage of turnout. Perhaps the Democrats had more early/absentee voters and the Republicans had a bigger election day turnout? Well, we can figure that by dividing Easley's absentees by his overall votes (573,120 divided by 1,939,137) to find a ratio of 30% for the Democrat. And then do the same for the Republican Ballantine to also get a ratio of 30%. Both Democrats and Republicans turned out in equal numbers in early voting and at the polls. Thank you, North Carolina.

To establish the point of consistency, here are the comparisons of all the other statewide races. It's a lot of numbers, most all of them in the same percentile range, but it was important to establish that there was a clear, obvious, and unaccounted diversion from the norm in both the Senate and Presidential races, so I spent a couple of twelve hour days and went through all the statewide numbers including the amendment votes.

MAJOR RACES

******
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (Absentee)
Beverly Eaves Perdue (DEM): 561,584 (55.7%)
Jim Snyder (REP): 433,112 (43.0%)
Other: 13,217 (1.3%)

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (Overall)
Beverly Eaves Perdue (DEM): 1,888,382 (55.6%)
Jim Snyder (REP): 1,453,711 (42.8%)
Other: 56,367 (1.6%)

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (Poll Only)
Beverly Eaves Perdue (DEM): 1,326,798 (55.5%)
Jim Snyder (REP): 1,020,599 (42.7%)
Other: 43,150 (1.8%)

*******
SECRETARY OF STATE (Absentee)
Elaine F. Marshall (DEM): 575,045 (58.0%)
Jay Rao (REP): 416,145 (42.0%)

SECRETARY OF STATE (Overall)
Elaine F. Marshall (DEM): 1,911,570 (57.3%)
Jay Rao (REP) 1,423,115 (42.7%)

SECRETARY OF STATE (Poll Only)
Elaine F. Marshall (DEM): 1,336,525 (57.0%)
Jay Rao (REP): 1,006,970 (43.0%)

******
ATTORNEY GENERAL (absentee)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 546,477 (56.7%)
Joe Knott (REP): 417,824 (43.3%)

ATTORNEY GENERAL (overall)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 1,869,699 (55.6%)
Joe Knott (REP): 1,493,061 (44.4%)

ATTORNEY GENERAL (poll-only)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 1,323,222 (55.2%)
Joe Knott (REP): 1,075,237 (44.8%)

******

OTHER STATEWIDE RACES:

******
AUDITOR (absentee)
Leslie Merritt (REP): 476,257 (48.6%)
Ralph Campbell (DEM): 503,250 (51.4%)

AUDITOR (overall)
Leslie Merritt (REP): 1,662,361 (50.4%)
Ralph Campbell (DEM): 1,633,622 (49.6%)

AUDITOR (poll-only)
Leslie Merritt (REP): 1,186,104 (51.2%)
Ralph Campbell (DEM): 1,130,372 (48.8%)

*******
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE (absentee)
Steve Troxler (REP): 478,794 (48.6%)
Britt Cobb (DEM): 506,613 (51.4%)

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE (overall)
Steve Troxler (REP): 1,665,678 (50.04%)
Britt Cobb (DEM): 1,663,022 (49.96%)

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE (poll-only)
Steve Troxler (REP): 1,186,884 (50.7%)
Britt Cobb (DEM): 1,156,409 (49.3%)

********
COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE (absentee)
Jim Long (DEM): 582,238 (58.4%)
C. Robert Brawley (REP): 414,204 (41.6%)

COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE (overall)
Jim Long (DEM): 1,934,061 (57.6%)
C. Robert Brawley (REP): 1,421,404 (42.4%)

COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE (poll only)
Jim Long (DEM): 1,351,823 (57.3%)
C. Robert Brawley (REP): 1,007,200 (42.7%)

*********
COMMISSIONER OF LABOR (absentee)
Cherie Berry (REP): 475,570 (50.2%)
Wayne Goodwin (DEM): 472,632 (49.8%)

COMMISSIONER OF LABOR (overall)
Cherie Berry (REP): 1,721,841 (52.1%)
Wayne Goodwin (DEM): 1,582,253 (47.9%)

COMMISSIONER OF LABOR (poll only)
Cherie Berry (REP): 1,246,271 (52.9%)
Wayne Goodwin (DEM): 1,109,621 (47.1%)

********
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION (absentee)
June S. Atkinson (DEM): 507,523 (51.7%)
Bill Fletcher (REP): 473,991 (48.3%)

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION (overall)
June S. Atkinson (DEM): 1,656,092 (50.1%)
Bill Fletcher (REP): 1,646,838 (49.9%)

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION (poll only)
June S. Atkinson (DEM): 1,148,569 (49.5%)
Bill Fletcher (REP): 1,172,847 (50.5%)

*********
TREASURER (absentee)
Richard H. Moore (DEM): 546,160 (55.3%)
Edward A. Meyer (REP): 440,871 (44.7%)

TREASURER (overall)
Richard H. Moore (DEM): 1,812,182 (54.5%)
Edward A. Meyer (REP): 1,512,628 (45.5%)

TREASURER (poll only)
Richard H. Moore (DEM): 1,266,022 (54.2%)
Edward A. Meyer (REP): 1,071,757 (45.8%)

**********
NC Constitutional Amendment 1 (absentee)
FOR: 432,697 (51.7%)
AGAINST: 403,475 (48.3%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 1 (overall)
FOR: 1,494,789 (51.2%)
AGAINST: 1,423,195 (48.8%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 1 (poll only)
FOR: 1,062,092 (51.0%)
AGAINST: 1,019,720 (49.0%)

**********
NC Constitutional Amendment 2 (absentee)
FOR: 679,434 (78.6%)
AGAINST: 185,101 (21.4%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 2 (overall)
FOR: 2,334,683 (78.0%)
AGAINST: 659,532 (22.0%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 2 (poll only)
FOR: 1,655,249 (77.7%)
AGAINST: 474,431 (22.3%)

**********
NC Constitutional Amendment 3 (absentee)
FOR: 591,122 (68.7%)
AGAINST: 269,641 (31.3%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 3 (overall)
FOR: 1,984,151 (68.0%)
AGAINST: 933,021 (32.0%)

NC Constitutional Amendment 3 (poll only)
FOR: 1,393,029 (67.7%)
AGAINST: 663,380 (32.3%)

**********

Of all the statewide races, the only other votes that may raise red flags are the Labor and Agriculture Commissioners, though likely the Catawba data will pull them into line. But none of the races showed anywhere near the unexplained swing of the Senate race.

*********
SENATOR (absentee)
Richard Burr (REP): 492,166 49.48%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 492,536 49.52% .04
Other: 9,917 1%

SENATOR (overall)
Richard Burr (REP): 1,791,460 51.6%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 1,632,509 47.0% -4.6
Other: 48,103 1.4%

SENATOR (poll only)
Richard Burr (REP): 1,299,294 52.4%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 1,139,973 46.0% -6.4
Others: 38,186 1.5%

*********

WOW. With essentially the same vote demographics in the absentee and the poll, there was a sudden shift of 6.4% of the vote toward the Republican. That's more than a little alarming and is in itself enough to call into question the legitimacy of the election day vote. North Carolinians in this forum can speak to this, but Bowles is generally well liked. There is absolutely nothing to account for the bizarre drop of support in the electorate by 6.4% between the early voting (mostly the week prior) and election day. But when we compare it to the Presidential race, it is dwarfed by absurdity.

*********
PRESIDENT (absentee)
George W. Bush: 529,755 52.9%
John F. Kerry: 469,522 46.9% -6.0
Others: 2749 0.2%

PRESIDENT (overall)
George W. Bush: 1,961,188 56.0%
John F. Kerry: 1,525,821 43.6% -12.4
Others: 13,989 0.4%

PRESIDENT (poll only)
George W. Bush: 1,431,433 57.3%
John F. Kerry: 1,056,299 42.3% -15.0
Others: 11,240 0.4%

*********

So what the heck is going on here??? Kerry was behind by 6 points in the absentee/early voting. The result is consistent with the pre-election polls and most importantly with the exit polls of November 2nd. THE EXIT POLLS TELL US THAT PEOPLE VOTED IDENTICALLY TO THE OTHER THIRD OF THE ELECTORATE. By all standards of reason, the other two-thirds of the vote should be very close to the same result. But look at what happens -- a sudden and unexplained plummet in the very same electorate of NINE POINTS at the election day polls, more than doubling Kerry's overall margin of defeat. A 15 point edge for Bush in North Carolina on election day??? Come on -- I'm not that gullible. I honestly don't know how to account for that outside of computer programming -- and if it's there, there's a damn good case with the nationwide inconsistencies between exit polls and results on election day to say that it follows everywhere electronic tabulation goes. My gut tells me that this is why there is a reluctance in Florida and Ohio to push the absentee counting and that the ballots and counts had best be watched very damn closely. They present a paper trail challenge that if understood will provide a key benchmark for election day fraud. I also want to point out that the differential was not there prior to election day -- meaning there either had to be a date specific alteration in the software, a hack, or a specific activation just prior to the election. And lastly, it is not only the Presidential election day vote that is spurious -- the close Senate races also bear close scrutiny.

Posted at 01:06 pm by blog swarm
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Alberto Gonzalez

Blog for America on Alberto Gonzalez

Yesterday George Bush nominated White House Counsel and former Texas Supreme Court Justice Alberto Gonzales to replace John Ashcroft as Attorney General. Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) has expressed serious concerns about the nomination:

"I commend Mr. Gonzales on his nomination to be Attorney General, but I'm concerned about aspects of his record as White House Counsel that raise doubts about his commitment to the rule of law. Even Secretary of State Powell objected to Mr. Gonzales' memorandum undermining the Geneva Conventions, which Mr. Gonzales called 'obsolete' and 'quaint.' "

Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) has issued a statement that was less specific, but in some ways just as telling:

"These confirmation hearings will be a rare opportunity for the Senate and the public to finally get some answers on several issues for which the Administration has resisted accountability, including its use of the PATRIOT Act, the lack of cooperation with Congress on oversight, and the policies that have been rejected by the courts on the treatment of detainees. This also may be the only remaining forum in which to examine more fully the steps that were taken to weaken U.S. policy on torture in the period that led to the prison scandals at Abu Ghraib and Afghanistan."

The ACLU has called for thorough confirmation hearings, urging Senators to press him on issues of civil liberties.

Posted at 12:59 pm by blog swarm
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Progress in Iraq

Progress

Bush radio address today:

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush on Saturday painted a rosy picture of the situation in Iraq, claiming significant progress in the U.S. military's battle in an insurgent stronghold.

In his weekly radio address, Bush applauded the assault on Fallujah, west of Baghdad. About 80 percent of the city was said to be under U.S. control, with insurgents pushed into a narrow corner. But the battle has claimed 22 American lives and wounded about 170 U.S. troops and violence has now spread to other Sunni Muslim areas of Iraq.

"Our forces have made significant progress in the last several days. They are taking back the city, clearing mosques of weapons and explosives stockpiled by insurgents and restoring order for law-abiding citizens," Bush said.


Bush radio address every other goddamn week.

Posted at 12:48 pm by blog swarm
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Exit Poll Anomaly Analysis

 
47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly 
Thursday, 11 November 2004, 1:45 pm
Article: Alastair Thompson

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly


By Jonathan Simon
Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

" In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. "
- Jonathan Simon

- JUMP STRAIGHT TO THE NEW DATA

Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

By the time of the close of polls at around 5pm EST on election day the buzz on the world wide web – including here at Scoop - was that Kerry had was a shoe in for election 2004. Slate Magazine and the Daily Kos had published the swing state exit polls before the polls had even closed. The news was very good for Kerry supporters.

According to the exit polls Kerry was showing a 1% popular vote margin over Bush. But more importantly he was shown leading by a nose in Florida and a solid 4% in Ohio. Because of the way the Electoral College system works this meant that he had almost certainly won.

The polls have significant sized samples in all states and ask actual voters who they actually voted for and so are traditionally very accurate.

As we now know they weren't very accurate once midnight came and went.

Or were they?

On November 4 (NZT – Nov. 3 EST) Scoop published Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals. This was the first exit poll comparison analysis produced on the web it originated in the Democratic Underground, a forum website, for Democratic Party activism and the clubhouse for a lot of people doing grassroots research work.

Faun Otter's data - already immortalised in the Wikipedia (with a link to Scoop.co.nz) - showed swing states moving far further on average from their exit poll results than non-swing states after the polls closed. I.E. the actual result for these states was more at variance with the exit polls than it was in other states.

Alarm bells rang at this point because it has always been postulated that looking at exit poll results after a stolen election would be the best way to look for "general" evidence of voting fraud. By general evidence I mean evidence that suggests fraud has occurred – not proof that it has.

The reason this is so is that traditionally exit polls have been close to 2% accurate. Yet in the last three elections, 2000, 2002 and 2004 they haven't been. This years poll remarkably is almost precisely a re-run of 2000 with Ohio playing the part of Florida. In Florida in 2000 the exit polls showed Gore winning by 3%. In the middle of the night they were still counting and on this state alone hinged the entire election.

In 2004 just like in 2000 Fox news called Ohio to Bush before the counting had finished.

Because exit polls are such a good research tool for vote fraud analysis an organisation called PollWatch.org was even set up to conduct independent exit polls. By election time their efforts had been subsumed into the efforts of VerifiedVoting.org, a lobby organisation initiated by Stanford University Professor David Dill which signed up thousands of computer scientists and academics to a petition calling for auditable voting machines.

However the activists were caught off guard on election night.

The Official Exit Poll results – posted in real time on public websites - have some significant drawbacks. Unbeknownst to their readers CNBC, Fox News and CNN were constantly updating their exit poll databases to fit the final results. That is the statistics were fluid and were updated several times through the evening. By 2am in the morning on Nov 3, If you looked at the exit polls and the final results you would find the matched. For Ohio, for Florida, for everywhere. No story there people. Move on.

But as often seems to happen in these tortured times, something unexpected happened and so we can now tell you something close to the full story.'

The Washington post takes up the story:

Washington Post 11/4/2004:

"... a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday.

The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points.

It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the vote count was well underway in the East that it became clear that Bush was in a stronger position in several key battlegrounds, including Ohio, than early exit polls suggested."

By 2am on Nov. 3 in the morning the publicly available exit poll results on the network news sites all changed. Activists still had the original results posted in blogs but they were no real comparison.

Which is why the following data study by Jonathan Simon of verifiedvoting.org is so remarkable.

As it turns out this study was only possible because of the computer crash reported by the Washington Post. While the boffins fiddled with their computers Simon – with a considerable degree of foresight - downloaded as much data as he could off the publicly available sites.

The revision number of this data is not known and the original data – from Edison - is now being sought by Scoop.co.nz in order to repeat this study with the full 4pm and 8pm data runs.

I conclude this introduction with some remarks from Chuck, who was commenting on Simon's results.

"Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the afternoon that his exit polls were off in nine states, but this does not sit well with me (I'd need to know how he would know at that point and, assuming he knew, why he would go ahead and promulgate them without caveat?).

Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this time for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they were doing routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like stained glass, a lost art."

Way too much indeed.

- Alastair Thompson Scoop Co Editor Thursday, 11 November 2004

*** ##### ****

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":


By Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004

I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 states—New Jersey, New York, North Carolina,Virginia—I did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state).

I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%).

In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more accurate results.

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth).

The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8% certainty that "mistabulation" played some significant role in this election.

Critical States (12)

DATA DESCRIPTION
Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%
Note: Red Shift = <(Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab)>/2 tab= tabulated vote, ep=exit poll

The number is positive with net movement toward Bush, negative (blue shift) with net movement toward Kerry. I'll take Florida (early) as an example:

Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%
Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%
Red Shift: <(52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%)>/2 = (2.2% + 2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

I'm aware that I've played fast and loose with significant figures; a more refined analysis would get at least one more sig fig out of the tabulated.

Critical States (12)

FINDING: 12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

State

BUSH

KERRY

#Resp

Time

Red Shift

Colorado

49.9

48.1

2515

12:24AM

2.60%

Florida

49.8

49.7

2846

12:21

2.5

*Florida

51.4

47.6

2862

1:01

0.6

Michigan

46.5

51.5

2452

12:21

1

Minnesota

44.5

53.5

2178

12:23

3

Nebraska

62.5

36

785

12:22

4.3

Nevada

47.9

49.2

2116

12:23

2.2

New Hamp.

44.1

54.9

1849

12:24

4.9

New Mex.

47.5

50.1

1951

12:24

1.9

Ohio

47.9

52.1

1963

7:32PM

3.1

*Ohio

50.9

48.6

2020

1:41AM

0.3

Penn

45.4

54.1

1930

12:21

3.4

Wisconsin

48.8

49.2

2223

12:21

(-)0.3

Iowa

48.4

49.7

2502

12:23

2

(Nebraska included because "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history)

Important Note: Because of rolling updates, some states may have been relatively pure by the time this data was collected. at 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been slightly corrupted. My guess is that most of these states were still OK at these times. *NOTE SCOOP IS SEEKING A COPY OF THE ORIGINAL DATA FROM 4PM AND 8PM ON ELECTION NIGHT – WATCH THIS SPACE*

*******************

Non-Critical States (35)

Again data order is Exit Poll Data, Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

FINDING: 35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

State

BUSH

KERRY

#Resp

Time

Red Shift

Alabama

58.1

40.5

730

12:17AM

4.2

Alaska

57.8

38.8

910

01:00AM

4

Arizona

52.8

46.7

1859

12:19

2.5

Arkansas

52.9

46.1

1402

12:22

1.1

Calif

46.6

54.6

1919

12:23

(-)1.5

CT

40.9

57.7

872

12:22

3.4

(CT

44.4

54.7

872

12:53)

0.2

DC

8.2

89.8

795

12:22

0.3

Delaware

40.7

57.3

770

12:22

4.8

Georgia

56.6

42.9

1536

12:22

2.2

Hawaii

46.7

53.3

499

12:22

(-)1.2

Idaho

65.7

32.9

559

12:22

2.6

Illinois

42.4

56.6

1392

12:23

1.6

Indiana

58.4

40.6

926

12:22

1.6

Kansas

64.5

34.1

654

12:22

(-)2.7

Kentucky

58.4

40.2

1034

12:22

0.9

Louisiana

54.7

43.9

1669

12:21

2.1

Maine

44.3

53.8

1968

12:22

0.8

Maryland

42.3

56.2

1000

12:22

0.5

Mass

32.9

65.2

889

12:22

3.7

Miss

56.5

43

798

12:22

3.3

Missouri

52

47

2158

12:21

1.5

Montana

58

37.5

640

12:22

(-)0.3

ND

64.4

32.6

649

12:22

(-)2.4

OK

65

34.6

1539

12:23

0.8

Oregon

47.9

50.3

1064

12:22

(-)1.3

RI

34.9

62.7

809

12:22

3.4

SC

53.4

45.1

1735

12:24

4.4

SD

61

36.5

1495

12:24

(-)1.8

Tenn

58

40.6

1774

12:23

(-)1.7

Texas

62.2

36.3

1671

12:22

(-)2.0

Utah

68.1

29.1

798

12:22

2.5

Vermont

33.3

63.7

685

12:22

5.2

Wash

44

54.1

2123

12:38

1.6

WV

54

44.5

1722

12:24

1.8

Wyoming

65.5

30.9

684

12:22

2.7

The following state data was obtained too late and highly contaminated with actual tabulation results:

State

BUSH

KERRY

#Resp

Time

Red Shift

NJ

46.2

52.8

1520

12:50

(-)0.2

NY

40.9

58.2

1452

12:52

(-)0.4

NC

56.5

42.7

2167

12:48

(-)0.4

Virginia

54.1

45.4

1431

12:56

(-)0.4

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud. This preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which the "exit polls" were really contaminated by tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism.

I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined coverup (we just don't know).

—Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004

Posted at 12:42 am by blog swarm
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Canadian Alternative

http://www.canadianalternative.com/

Welcome to CanadianAlternative.com. We invite you to get to know Canada. Explore the richness and diversity of our regions. And find out why Canada is the perfect alternative for conscientious, forward-thinking Americans.

If you like what you see, we welcome you to join us. We’ve provided some useful information on this site to help you immigrate to Canada, get work in Canada, do business in Canada and find a home in Canada.

Ranked by the United Nations as the best country in the world to live for eight consecutive years, Canada deserves serious consideration as a place to settle down, raise a family, pursue a career or start a business.

Posted at 12:36 am by blog swarm
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Kerry Won Ohio -Palast

In These Times
Friday, November 12, 2004
Most voters in Ohio chose Kerry. Here's how the votes vanished.

By Greg Palast

This February, Ken Blackwell, Ohio's Secretary of State, told his State Senate President, "The possibility of a close election with punch cards as the state’s primary voting device invites a Florida-like calamity." Blackwell, co-chair of Bush-Cheney reelection campaign, wasn't warning his fellow Republican of disaster, but boasting of an opportunity to bring in Ohio for Team Bush no matter what the voters wanted. And most voters in Ohio wanted JFK, not GWB. But their choice won't count because their votes won't be counted.

The ballots that add up to a majority for John Kerry in Ohio -- and in New Mexico -- are locked up in two Republican hidey-holes: "spoiled" ballots and "provisional" ballots.

OHIO SPOILED ROTTEN
American democracy has a dark little secret. In a typical presidential election, two million ballots are simply chucked in the garbage, marked "spoiled" and not counted. A dive into the electoral dumpster reveals something special about these votes left to rot. In a careful county-by-county, precinct-by-precinct analysis of the Florida 2000 race, the US Civil Rights Commission discovered that 54% of the votes in the spoilage bin were cast by African-Americans. And Florida, Heaven help us, is typical. Nationwide, the number of Black votes "disappeared" into the spoiled pile is approximately one million. The other million in the no-count pit come mainly from Hispanic, Native-American and poor white precincts, a decidedly Democratic demographic.



Ohio Republicans, simultaneously in charge of both the Bush-Cheney get-out-the-vote drive and the state's vote-counting rules, doggedly and systematically insured the spoilage pile would be as high as the White House.

Vote spoilage comes in two flavors. There are "overvotes" -- too many punches in the cards, and "undervotes." Here we find the hanging, dimpled and "pregnant" chads created by old, dysfunctional punch card machines, in which the bit of paper covering the hole doesn't fall out, but hangs on. Machines can't read these, but we humans, who know a hole when we see one, have no problem reading these cards … if allowed to. This is how Katherine Harris defeated Al Gore, by halting the hand count of the spoiled punch cards not, as is generally believed, by halting a "recount."

Whose chads are left hanging? In Florida in 2000 federal investigators determined that Black voters' ballots spoiled 900% more often than white