Entry: NDN's New Majority Coalition Tuesday, November 09, 2004



 NDN's New Majority Coalition Research Project

To help Democrats chart a new course for 2004 and for years to come, the New Democrat Network launched the New Majority Coalition Project, a multi-year research project to help identify the characteristics and concerns of America's changing electorate; effectively communicate a Democratic message to them; develop a potent critique of President Bush and the GOP; and devise a strategy that energizes our party's base and attracts swing voters in order to build a lasting Democratic coalition. Since 2001, NDN has released numerous polls and strategy memos as part of this project.

Restoring the Promise of America:
Making the Democratic Case in the Home Stretch

NDN's September 2004 strategy memo concluded that the message that Democrats will restore the promise of America can help the party regain a majority. The memo, based on new national polling by Mark Penn, found:

  • Democrats Must Put Forward a Positive Agenda for the Future. The strongest message tested for either side was a positive New Democratic agenda that argues that Democrats will restore the promise of America after years of failed Republican leadership. It offers concrete policy plans on security, fiscal discipline, health care, education, and the environment. For example, with this NDN Agenda message, the presidential horse race shifts from 45 percent for John Kerry and 49 percent for George W. Bush, to 53 percent for Kerry and 43 percent for Bush.
  • Voters in the Dark About Democratic Agenda. Likely voters believe that the Democratic Party would do a better job in handling the major domestic issues of the day, but a majority do not believe that the Democratic Party or its standard-bearer has made clear its agenda for the future. 56 percent of voters believe that the GOP has a clear agenda for the future; only 45 percent say that the Democratic Party has.
  • Key Fundamentals Running Against Republicans. The mood of the country is running against the party in power. 50 percent say that the country is off on the wrong track, and 51 percent say the same about the economy. Democrats still win the generic congressional ballot (43 to 40) and the generic state legislative ballot (40 to 39). And after a nominating convention widely seen as successful, Bush leads Kerry by just 4 points (49 to 45).
  • Security and Personality Driving Presidential Support. The Republicans have successfully increased the salience of their strongest issue, security, with the number of voters who say that security is the most important issue facing the country increasing 12 percentage points since May 2004. Also, voters who support Bush overwhelmingly do so for his personal leadership abilities and values. Democrats still have a 20-plus percentage point disadvantage when it comes to whom voters trust on handling the war on terrorism. Democrats cannot concede the issue of terrorism to the Republicans. As part of any long-term agenda, Democrats must put forward a security agenda that is based on smart ideas for keeping America safe, not based on accomplishments of any individual candidate's past.
  • Swings Can Be Swung. This data shows that swing voters are ripe for becoming part of a durable Democratic coalition. Swing voters are pessimistic about the future of the economy, and care more about it. Yet, they also have much higher approval ratings of Bush (62 percent approving compared to 54 percent overall approving). To win swing voters into a long-term majority, Democrats must erode Republicans' advantage on leadership, match their toughness on security, and drive home issues on which swing voters favor Democrats: economy, health care, and education.
  • Voters Logging On to Politics. As many likely voters use the Internet as their main source of news as use radio. In addition, 25 percent of likely voters visit politics websites, with candidate and party websites being the most visited. Despite the continued dominance of television as a news medium, the Internet is a rapidly rising competitor that stands to be a major news source in the years ahead.
   2 comments

Ivailo
August 25, 2005   12:51 PM PDT
 
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JulieC
November 10, 2004   04:33 PM PST
 
I agree with you; the Democratic machine needs a major tune up. We could not defeat a president who squandered a surplus, created record deficits, did not capture Bin Laden, mired the country in an unwinnable war in Iraq, and can hardly even speak English. Given these facts, how did half of the country cast their vote for Bush? The answer is that the Republicans treated Bush like a product brand and marketed him brilliantly. Instead of letting Bush be defined by his record, they broadcasted a message of moral values and security. Republican pundits would always return to those themes, no matter what the topic. After hearing this message for eight months, Americans associated Bush with these words and ideas. These words were carefully chosen. They could easily be woven into any issue. These ideas- moral values and security- are so positive, so good, how could anyone be against such things? The brilliance of this strategy was that, despite his past failure to do so, Americans believed that Bush would bring morality and security to the country for the next four years.

What can the Democrats do? We cannot throw up our hands and give up. We cannot complain about stolen elections or uninformed voters. We need to steal a page from the Republicans’ playbook and get ourselves a theme. Let me be the first to suggest one: a free people. What are the Democrats about? We are a party of the people, for the people. What do we stand for? We stand for helping people, by supporting education, healthcare, and the economy. How to answer crippling questions about abortion and gay rights? We believe in protecting people’s freedoms and rights. What about Iraq? We are not soft on defense; we will do anything necessary to protect the American people. What about religion and moral values? In America, people are free to practice all religions. We support moral values of all people, and will force them on none. We plan on governing in a way that ensures people’s religious freedoms. What about the environment? The protection of the environment ensures that future generations of the American people will inherit a country as great as the one we have today.

All the repetition in the preceding paragraph is not a sign of bad writing, it’s an example of the way the Democrats need to always promote their theme. The nice thing is that we don’t have to give up our principles with this strategy. We will not abandon gays because their cause will lose us votes. We will not abandon minorities or the poor in an effort to seduce the south. We will explain our core values in a way that everyone agrees with. The freedom of the American people is the rock of our country. It is inspiring, not only to Americans, but to millions of people around the world. It is something that inspires optimism and collectivism. It is not a value unique to “liberals.”

Conversely, this argument must be used against the Republicans. They are not a party for the people. They are a party for big business. They are a party that hurts people (deficits, tax cuts for the wealthy, eliminating social security, eliminating environmental regulations, underfunding education, making it illegal to negotiate prices with drug companies). They take away freedoms (abortion, gay marriage, Patriot Act). We need to stop fighting the Republicans’ arguments on moral values and security. By participating in those debates, we are using their words, their language, and fighting on their turf. We need to create our own arguments and bring the fight to our turf. We need to talk about the current erosion of freedom, and the protection of the American people. We need to say that the government is the servant of the people, and its aim will be to ensure freedom for all Americans. These are arguments that will win elections.

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